OP #244: Learning How to Predict the Future

Author

Darren Herman
January 30, 2024

Happy Tuesday OP Community,
After reading last week’s OP #243 which included the NY Knicks theme song story of Jesse Itzer. My friend John Rini, exec recruiter at Korn Ferry, sent me the untold story of Roundball Rock, the famous NBA anthem created by John Tesch. If you are a sports or live entertainment fan, watch the short YouTube video.
I guess reminiscing has been front and center for me the last couple of weeks. In the late 80s and early 90s, I used to walk through Borders Books in the White Plains Pavilion (mall) and flip through all of the computer magazines. I loved doing this and it was my way of staying up to speed on the latest hardware and software. I came upon this piece in Technologizer, all about the origins story of PC Magazine, PC World, and Macworld. To me, this brought back the “feels” and even led me to purchase a Premier Issue of Macworld (1984) in great condition off eBay, which is now sitting in my home office as a memento of this era.
Speaking of reading, Michael Litvak, another OP letter reader, sent me a recommendation to read Genius Makers: The Mavericks Who Brought AI to Google, Facebook, and the World. This too is now sitting in my home office and I look forward to diving in. Speaking of AI, there’s starting to be AI for anything. Here’s one for writing better marketing briefs and one for inspiring better presentations and content.
As you can see, I love it when OP subscribers reach out.
One of you even asked me to include the three latest songs added to my Spotify playlist in each letter. I like this idea. Just a heads up: my playlist is all over the place.  You’ll see by these three songs:
1 - Bad Man - Kordhell Remix - Disturbed, Kordhell.  This song was playing in the crossfit gym I belong to and I dug it from the moment it came on. Think Tuesday hype-song.
2 - Everybody (feat. Lil Uzi Vert) - Nicki Minaj.  Not going to lie, I’m not a big fan of this song. It’s on my playlist because my teenage daughter has been obsessing over it and we listen to it when she’s in the car with me. Fun fact: I was at the SXSW showcase where Junior Senior played in the United States for the first time and everyone in the room was singing the lyrics to Everybody as they played it. They were immediately signed to a record label.  It was magical. 
3 - Ghost - Josiah and the Bonnevilles. This song has been growing on me. I also learned it was originally a Justin Beiber song.
I’m excited about this OP and I hope you are too.  Please remember to fill out the one second poll at the bottom of this letter to give me feedback.
Darren

Predicting the Future Isn’t So Difficult

Have you ever delved into an investment firm’s portfolio to gauge future market trends? If not, it's time to start.
For professionals in Customer Experience, Marketing, Commerce, or any customer-facing role, understanding future technology trends is crucial, whether you're in B2B or B2C sectors.
A favorite activity of mine is exploring leading investor portfolios such as USV, Benchmark, a16z, Bain Capital Ventures, and more. It's insightful to see where their investments are focused. The key isn't just the portfolio companies themselves, but the sectors and product offerings they represent.
Consider this: approximately one-third of these companies are likely to be breakout successes. They might either pioneer a new category (0-1) or significantly evolve an existing one (1-N). Regularly studying these trends can help you stay ahead, guiding your strategic direction.
Union Square Ventures is exemplary in sharing their insights. Since their inception, they've been transparent about their strategies, inspiring me to adopt a similar approach in projects like the Operating Partner, kbs+ Ventures, and others, where I've embraced open thinking.
Recently, USV published a blog post discussing their evolving investment thesis. Given their exceptional track record, this is an essential read for anyone in the field. Few firms match USV's returns, and their market foresight has been consistently accurate.
Reading such posts and documents is key to predicting future trends. It's about knowing where to look and whose insights to trust.
Another interesting area is prediction markets. For instance, check out this insightful New York Times write-up on Prediction Markets.

Job Opportunity: GTM Strategist (DECKED)

DECKED is a leading manufacturer of in-vehicle storage solutions – we make innovative, useful products to help our customers get more out of their vehicles and we are committed to designing and manufacturing our products right here in the U.S. DECKED is a rapidly growing brand in the automotive aftermarket and is seeking product talent to accelerate our exciting trajectory.  You can read more about DECKED in this recent Forbes article.

DECKED’s GTM Strategist is responsible for:

  1. Running analyses to increase DECKED’s go-to-market efficiency & impact

  2. Creating accurate demand and revenue forecasts

  3. Owning DECKED’s sales & operational planning (S&OP) process

You will be a key member of DECKED revenue organization, deeply embedded in the strategic planning of our go-to-market strategy, investments, organization, initiatives, and tactics.

Go here to learn much more about this role and apply.

I've done extensive reading this week and I hope you'll enjoy the following links that I've curated. If you come across an article that you believe would be a great addition to future OP letters, don't hesitate to share it with me. However, please note that I retain the discretion to decide on the content that goes into each OP letter.

Fair Use Face-Off (The Change Constant)

Empire AI (Fred Wilson)

Thank you for reading this week’s OP. If you have a free moment, please fill out the below poll which helps me make the OP better. - Darren

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