OP #254: Google HubSpot

Some thoughts on the Google-HubSpot speculation.

Author

Darren Herman
April 09, 2024

Good morning,

This is a condensed OP newsletter this week. I hope you like the format where I tackle a specific topic in more-depth.

Before we get into the Google HubSpot thoughts, here are some things that you should check out:

💡 Ari Paparo writes a piece called “Everyone Gets a Bidder!” Speaking of ad tech, Pontiac Intelligence’s Keith Gooberman has been sharing some thoughts on Monday’s via LinkedIn that I’ve been enjoying.

🏀 UConn-Iowa, Women's Final 4 Game became ESPN’s most watched basketball game, ever. Let that sink in. Speaking of basketball, Sotheby’s is hosting the NBA Auctions for the 2024 All-Star Game. And the Knicks played strong against the Bucks.

🚖 My brother brought this to my attention: Keeping my eyes out for Musk’s new robotaxi.

🥂 Our May 6 event for Silicon Alley Sports is sold out for player tickets, but we do have some schmoozer tickets available.

🌤 I’ve been thinking about climate migration and this Atlantic article hits it straight on. Will this impact where we live? A hat tip to Roger Ehrenberg for the original post.

⚾ Excited for my friend Darren Rovell and the launch of his new ‘hodinkee for sports collectibles’ called cllct. The launch is perfectly timed for talking about the game worn craze around Caitlin Clark. Some nice coverage in Sportico, CNBC,

A short but sweet section of some articles that I read this week. To be honest, I didn’t read a ton… it’s been super busy and I’ve been heads down.

My Hot Take on Google-Hubspot Speculation

I usually refrain from engaging in speculation or discussions about potential deals, but the rumblings about a Google-HubSpot merger have piqued my interest enough to share my personal insights. Please bear in mind, these thoughts are purely my own and not reflective of my employer’s stance. My knowledge on this subject is based solely on publicly available information from press releases, websites, podcasts, and blogs. And remember, this is speculation… the pursuit may be dead as you read this.

My interest in commenting on this potential merger is unusual, given my history of silence on similar matters within the industry. My career trajectory has given me a unique vantage point; I was present when Google acquired DoubleClick and have observed their growth trajectory closely. While I’ve never been a Google employee, my professional path has intersected with theirs through collaboration, competition, and observation. The rumored Google-HubSpot deal is currently a hot topic within my network and this OP community, prompting me to share my perspective in this Operating Partner letter.

The speculation that Google and HubSpot might be considering a merger is noteworthy, especially considering the magnitude of these public companies and the possible stock market implications.

I wanted to give a few takes that I’ve not read yet. With that said, I am avoiding the common takes you can find in most articles online.

Why This Merger Could Be Beneficial

After tuning into the All-in-Podcast discussion on this topic, I noticed a missed point about the synergy between Google and HubSpot, particularly compared to Google and Salesforce. HubSpot arguably caters to a higher volume of SMB customers than Salesforce does. Google’s audience largely comprises SMBs, making a partnership with HubSpot, a platform designed with SMB-friendly tools, a strategic move. Salesforce would be the wrong move for scale.

Furthermore, HubSpot sits at the heart of many marketing strategies. It manages leads, pipelines, and the deployment of email and SMS campaigns. A deal with Google could potentially prioritize HubSpot clients’ access to the Gmail inbox, a significant advantage given the common challenge of marketing emails being sidelined into secondary tabs. I feel this pain with the OP email every time I send.

The synergy between search and email marketing is clear. Google excels at generating leads through SEM, and email and SMS marketing are logical follow-ups for nurturing these leads.

Potential Challenges

However, there are hurdles. The teams focused on buying search might not overlap with those deploying marketing strategies for managing communications pipelines. Gaining trust across different segments of a marketing organization could be a challenge for Google.

Additionally, demonstrating ROI from email/SMS campaigns can be more complex than from SEM alone. The direct correlation between paid search and sales that bolstered Google’s rise might not be as easily replicated in integrated marketing approaches.

There’s also the matter of data privacy and the increasing reluctance among marketers to consolidate too much power and data with a single provider.

And of course, antitrust and monopolistic issues. I have no idea if this creates any issue as I’m not a lawyer, but I imagine this will be scrutinized.

Personal Takeaway

Despite these considerations, I find the prospect of a Google-HubSpot merger appealing for several reasons. Notably, gaining priority access to the Gmail inbox could be a significant advantage for brands, given the difficulty of navigating current email regulations and gaining visibility.

From the perspective of someone who has managed marketing dashboards, pipelines, and campaigns, enhanced integration between Google and HubSpot could offer valuable insights and efficiencies, regardless of the specific performance of SEM strategies. Could Google train millions of SMBs to become more full-funnel in marketing?

These observations come at a time when the ascendancy of AI and new platforms could challenge Google’s SEM dominance, making this potential move both a strategic offense and defense.

In summary, while the speculation around a Google-HubSpot deal is just that—speculation—the potential synergies and strategic benefits it could bring to both companies, especially in serving SMBs and enhancing email marketing strategies, make it a discussion worth following.

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