OP #279: Where the Puck Is Going: 18 Industries Shaping The Next Decade

Hello OP Community, happy Tuesday.

It’s Sunday afternoon and it’s beginning to feel like winter up here, just west of Boston, MA. Grey skies, some snow covering part of the lawn, and the majority of the pond behind my home beginning to freeze. I have Japanese Lofi Chill playing over Spotify, my Pomander Woods Otherland candle lit, and I’m finishing up the last third of a Cadbury Dairy Milk Fruit & Nut bar which I picked up while enroute back from Grenada last week.

Speaking of Grenada, there was a ton of interest from the OP community in learning more about the island, where we stayed, and such. Here’s a good article on Grenada from Travel + Leisure which first appeared in the Dec 2024/January 2025 issue. The title of the article is “This Under-the-Radar Caribbean Island Is About to Become the Next Big Destination.”  That pretty much sums it up.

The next two weeks are going to be a sprint and a blur.  I’m trying to get everything done so I can disappear after 12/20 and spend time with the extended family. I’m super excited to spend a lot of time with my parents and my brother (and his) family. Sherri and I will also sneak in a couple of nights in Manhattan and enjoy some nights out and maybe some shopping time in and around Soho. I think there’s also two Celtics games and one Knicks (Xmas Day) game in there too.

I didn’t read as much this week as I typically do, but I did flag the following:

👟 Fascinating thread on how Kanye West brought a $60B company to it’s knees (@timjcarden). Way back when, Nike gave 5% of royalties to Michael Jordan.  Kanye got 15%. Adidas was hitting all time highs with Kanye before he made his anti-semetic statements.  But when he did, which I cannot stand for, Adidas had $1.3B in inventory of his Yeezy shoes. In 2023, they sold the remaining shoes and donated the proceeds to anti-hate organizations. This resulted in $750M in 2023 sales alone.

💡 McKinsey put out a 200+ page report around the ‘next big arenas for competition.’   From 2005 to 2020, key sectors like e-commerce, cloud services, and electric vehicles transformed the economic landscape, tripling their share of global GDP. The study identifies 18 future arenas, including AI, robotics, and cybersecurity, projected to generate up to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040.  More on this one below.

📊 I spent some time reading Tinuiti’s Big Bets For the CMO in 2025 report. Tinuiti is a partner to me and some of my portfolio companies and like where they went with this. In particular, I like their topics around the future of search and agentic commerce.  If you are a reader of the OP, chances are, you’ll enjoy this piece too. If you are interested in AI-topics for the CMO, this piece by BCG from earlier this year is solid too.

Here are some quick reads that you might find interesting as well:

• Bain & Co’s List of 2024 Insurgent Brands to Watch

• You Want That Gift To Arrive Today? This Is What It Takes (NYT)

• B2B Marketing Lags Behind B2C: Talent and Attribution Challenges (World of DaaS)

• IPOs Are So Passe. Here’s How Employees Are Getting Rich Now. (WSJ)

Thank you again for reading the Operating Partner letter. Please feel free to reach out with any questions, comments, or ways to make it better. Or, just say hi!

Darren

An Ode to My Daughter, Ava

For those who don’t know, my 14-year-old daughter Ava is a freshman in high school, and this time of year is pure magic for her. Why? It’s camp reunion season—the kickoff to another summer at her happy place. Camp has been her sanctuary for nearly a decade, where laughter echoes, friendships grow, and memories are made under the sun. Way back when, my brother and I went to this same camp and have made lifelong friends.

But this weekend didn’t quite go as planned. A stomach bug sidelined her, canceling our much-anticipated trip to New York for the reunion. She’s been resting up at home, missing out on the joy she looks forward to all year. So, in an effort to lift her spirits (and finally give her the OP feature she’s always teasing me about), here’s a little something for Ava—a poem, just for her:

To Ava, who dances through life with grace,
Campfires and echoes are her special place.
Ten years of laughter, of bonds that stay true,
Even when storms cloud a sky once blue.

Though this weekend was quiet, the season's still bright,
Her happy place waits—just a short drive in sight.
Keep that smile, Ava, it lights up the way,
For every reunion, and every new day.

Love ya Rooney - see you tonight!

The Next Big Arenas: Where the Puck is Headed

In business, as in hockey, the magic happens when you focus on where the puck is going—not where it’s been. I’ve always been drawn to what’s next, and McKinsey’s exploration of future competitive arenas hits that sweet spot. These 18 industries aren’t just shaping markets; they’re also rewriting the playbook for how businesses grow, innovate, and compete. From AI-driven decision-making to modular construction redefining real estate, these arenas are packed with the kind of transformative potential that keeps operators, investors, and strategists like us on our toes.

You’ll smile because some of these have been on previous decade’s list, but there are some new entrants. This is a good read if you have the time. Original article is here.

• E-commerce:
  Digital sales have become an unstoppable force in retail, integrating personalized recommendations, frictionless checkouts, and rapid fulfillment. Platforms like Amazon and Shopify are pushing boundaries with AI-powered logistics and localized marketplaces. The next frontier includes innovations in virtual storefronts, direct-to-consumer brand proliferation, and subscription-based commerce. As the line between online and offline blurs, expect more immersive shopping experiences driven by augmented and virtual reality.

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) Software and Services:
  AI is evolving from a niche tool into a business essential, revolutionizing industries from healthcare to logistics. Companies are leveraging AI for predictive analytics, process automation, and customer personalization. Emerging innovations like generative AI and autonomous decision-making are creating entirely new markets. With ethical considerations and regulation looming, the race for AI dominance will favor those who combine innovation with responsible scaling.

• Cloud Services:
  Cloud technology is no longer just a tool—it’s the core enabler of digital transformation. Businesses are migrating to multi-cloud and hybrid models to maximize efficiency and resilience. Innovations in edge computing and serverless architectures are unlocking new possibilities in processing speed and scalability. As data sovereignty and cybersecurity take center stage, the cloud’s evolution will be defined by trust and interoperability.

• Electric Vehicles (EVs):
  The EV revolution is more than a shift in how cars are powered—it’s a reimagination of the auto ecosystem. Players like Tesla, Rivian, and traditional automakers are racing to deliver longer range, faster charging, and smarter systems. Battery technology is a key differentiator, driving advances in sustainability and cost-efficiency. Meanwhile, the rise of EV infrastructure, including charging networks and energy grids, is reshaping how consumers interact with vehicles.

• Digital Advertising:
  The digital advertising landscape is maturing, with programmatic platforms, social media, and streaming services creating new pathways to connect with consumers. Data privacy regulations and cookie deprecation are forcing innovation in first-party data strategies. The role of influencers and user-generated content is shifting from a trend to a cornerstone of marketing. In this new era, brands that master personalization and measure effectiveness will gain a lasting edge.

• Semiconductors:
  Semiconductors are the engines of the digital world, enabling everything from AI to 5G networks. The industry is grappling with supply chain disruptions while investing heavily in advanced node technologies. Players like Nvidia and TSMC are pushing the envelope in performance and energy efficiency. With geopolitical tensions influencing manufacturing hubs, the sector is poised for a period of strategic decentralization and regional investment.

• Shared Autonomous Vehicles (AVs):
  Shared AVs represent the future of urban transport, promising efficiency, safety, and sustainability. Pilot programs in cities like Phoenix and Shanghai are demonstrating their potential, while regulatory frameworks are beginning to catch up. Business models ranging from ride-sharing to logistics are emerging, each vying to capture the early market. The integration of AVs into smart city ecosystems could redefine how we think about mobility and urban planning.

• Space:
  The space race has entered a new commercial era, driven by private players like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab. Satellite constellations are expanding internet access, while space tourism edges closer to reality. Governments and companies alike are exploring lunar and Martian missions, setting the stage for deeper space exploration. As costs drop and capabilities grow, space is becoming an increasingly competitive—and lucrative—arena.

• Cybersecurity:
  Cybersecurity is the linchpin of digital trust in a hyperconnected world. As threats evolve, so do the tools, with AI-driven threat detection and zero-trust architectures leading the way. Cloud security, endpoint protection, and identity management are critical in safeguarding against sophisticated attacks. Businesses are realizing that cybersecurity isn’t just a technical function—it’s a strategic imperative impacting reputation and resilience.

• Batteries:
  Battery technology is a cornerstone of the energy transition, powering everything from EVs to renewable energy storage. Innovations in solid-state and lithium-sulfur batteries are promising longer lifespans and faster charging. Scaling production sustainably is a challenge, with recycling and ethical sourcing gaining attention. The future will belong to players who can balance performance with environmental impact.

• Modular Construction:
  Modular construction is bringing precision manufacturing principles to the building industry, reducing costs and timelines. From high-rises to affordable housing, this approach is reshaping how structures are designed and assembled. Digital twin technology and automation are further enhancing efficiency and quality. As labor shortages and sustainability pressures mount, modular solutions are becoming an essential strategy for developers.

• Streaming Video:
  Streaming platforms have transformed how audiences consume content, shifting power from studios to algorithms. Global players like Netflix and Disney+ are investing in localized content to tap into regional markets. The battle for subscribers is intensifying as free ad-supported services (FAST) gain traction. In this crowded space, differentiation will hinge on exclusive content, seamless experiences, and smart monetization.

• Video Games:
  Video games are driving cultural, technological, and economic innovation, with immersive worlds and social ecosystems. The rise of esports and streaming platforms is creating new opportunities for engagement and monetization. Emerging technologies like VR, AR, and blockchain are adding layers of interactivity and ownership. With gaming increasingly seen as a lifestyle, it’s becoming a key battleground for consumer attention.

• Robotics:
  Robots are breaking out of factories and entering homes, warehouses, and healthcare settings. Advances in AI and machine learning are enabling robots to perform complex tasks and adapt to dynamic environments. Collaborative robots (“cobots”) are redefining human-machine partnerships across industries. As costs fall and capabilities grow, robotics is poised to transform productivity and service delivery.

• Industrial and Consumer Biotechnology:
  Biotech innovations are tackling global challenges, from sustainable agriculture to personalized medicine. Companies are leveraging synthetic biology to create new materials, foods, and health solutions. Consumer applications like lab-grown meat and bio-based cosmetics are gaining traction. With the intersection of biotech and data science accelerating discoveries, the sector is set for exponential growth.

• Future Air Mobility:
  Air mobility is taking off with eVTOLs, drones, and autonomous aircraft reimagining transportation. These technologies promise to revolutionize logistics, emergency response, and urban commutes. Companies are racing to build infrastructure, secure regulatory approvals, and achieve economies of scale. As the skies become more crowded, innovation in air traffic management will be critical.

• Drugs for Obesity and Related Conditions:
  The fight against obesity is unlocking groundbreaking pharmaceutical solutions, like GLP-1 agonists. These treatments are not only transforming weight management but also addressing related conditions like diabetes and heart disease. Consumer awareness and payer support are driving adoption, creating a multi-billion-dollar market. Innovations in delivery mechanisms and combination therapies will sustain momentum in this space.

• Nuclear Fission Power Plants:
  Nuclear power is experiencing a renaissance, with advanced fission technologies promising safer and more efficient energy generation. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are leading the charge, offering flexibility and scalability. As nations aim for carbon neutrality, nuclear is reentering the global energy conversation. With innovation and public acceptance, this sector could be a key player in the clean energy transition.

Thank you for reading the OP this week. I hope you enjoyed! If you received the OP because someone sent it to you and you’d like to subscribe for free, please do so here. If you’d like to search the archive of past OPs, you can do so here.